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Goldman Sachs has raised the odds of a US recession to 35% within the next year, citing escalating tariffs from Trump's trade war as a key factor. The bank also increased its inflation forecast and adjusted its GDP growth estimate for 2025 to just 1%, while predicting a rise in the unemployment rate to 4.5%. Consumer confidence has significantly declined, with many Americans anticipating higher unemployment, as the administration's aggressive tariff policies continue to unfold.
Goldman Sachs has revised its forecast, now predicting three Federal Reserve interest rate cuts in 2025 and raising the probability of a U.S. recession to 35%. This adjustment follows concerns over President Trump's tariffs, which are expected to pressure economic growth and have led to a decline in household and business confidence. The bank anticipates rate reductions in July, September, and November, citing increased risks from upcoming tariffs.
Xiaohongshu, the Chinese social media platform, is pivoting to expand internationally after a surge of users from TikTok's potential ban. With a new Hong Kong office and a global e-commerce pilot targeting the U.S. and beyond, the platform aims to retain its growing user base while facing challenges in monetization and competition with Western apps. Despite initial success, analysts express skepticism about its long-term commercial viability in the West.
Goldman Sachs has cut its S&P 500 target for the second time this month, now forecasting a year-end level of 5,700 points, down from 6,200, due to heightened recession risks and tariff uncertainties. The revised target suggests only a 2% gain from recent levels, reflecting concerns over slowing growth and rising equity risk premiums.Additionally, the firm has increased its tariff assumptions and lowered its 2025 GDP growth forecast to 1%, indicating a more pessimistic outlook for the U.S. economy amid ongoing trade tensions.
Elon Musk accused Reid Hoffman of funding protests against Tesla, claiming a direct link to the group Indivisible. In a sharp retort, Hoffman countered that the real probability is that many people dislike Musk, suggesting he fabricates accusations instead of addressing his issues. The ongoing protests, some of which have turned violent, reflect growing public anger towards Musk's actions and influence.
Gold prices have surged past $3,100 per ounce, reaching a record high of $3,122.22, driven by concerns over U.S. tariff policies and geopolitical tensions. Goldman Sachs now forecasts gold could hit $3,300 by year-end, with a hypothetical extreme scenario suggesting prices could soar to $4,500 within the next 12 months. This potential increase highlights the significant demand for gold as a safe-haven asset amid economic instability.
Goldman Sachs has revised its S&P 500 target downward for the second time this month, now forecasting a year-end close of 5,700 points, down from 6,200. This adjustment reflects increased recession risks and uncertainties surrounding tariffs, suggesting only a 2% gain from recent levels. The new target is among the lowest on Wall Street, according to Bloomberg.
Goldman Sachs has raised the probability of a U.S. recession to 35%, citing declining business and consumer confidence, and a slowdown in real income growth. The bank also revised its tariff projections to 15% by 2025, predicting core PCE inflation to reach 3.5%, significantly above the Federal Reserve's target. Additionally, GDP growth forecasts for 2025 have been lowered to 1.0%, with unemployment expected to rise to 4.5% amid economic uncertainty.
Elon Musk emphasized the critical nature of the Wisconsin Supreme Court election, claiming it could determine "the future of civilization." At a rally in Green Bay, he distributed $1 million checks to two voters to promote opposition to "activist judges," despite legal challenges regarding the legality of his actions. The election, which could shift the court's ideological balance, has already become the most expensive judicial race in U.S. history, with over $81 million spent.
Tesla is poised to report a decline in first-quarter deliveries, with estimates between 355,000 and 360,000, reflecting a 7% drop from last year. This downturn is attributed to consumer backlash against CEO Elon Musk, ongoing protests, and anticipation for updates to the Model Y. Additionally, new tariffs on foreign-made vehicles threaten to disrupt the auto industry, with Musk acknowledging the significant impact on Tesla.
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